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- 去找1中高收入消费者, 65岁及以上的消费者, 增长放缓的主要原因是什么, while low-income 消费者s 和 those under 35 maintained relatively stable spending growth.
- 去找2支出 at large businesses shrunk more than spending at small- 和 medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), though SMEs accounted for almost as much of the slowdown in local 消费者 commercial spending as large businesses.
- 去找3The growth of spending by 消费者s at businesses in their own metropolitan areas slowed the most, 尤其是在他们自己社区的企业里.
- 去找4支出 growth at businesses that sell fuel 和 other nondurable goods slowed dramatically, 这不仅仅是因为价格下跌.
- 去找5Strong 和 diverse growth across most metropolitan areas from Q2 2013 to Q2 2014 has slowed to tepid growth across the board from Q2 2014 to Q2 2015.
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2015年12月
研究 from the 澳博官方网站app 研究所 shows that the year-to-year growth of 消费者s’ everyday spending on most goods 和 services in 15 major US metropolitan areas has slowed dramatically, 从2014年第二季度的5%下降到0%.2015年同期增长了5%.
This slowdown in everyday spending growth is one of several puzzling signals in the data on the US economy. Gross domestic product has increased every quarter except for Q1 2014 in the past four years, 但时断时续. 失业率下降，企业利润基本保持稳定. 按实际价值计算, 自2009年经济衰退以来，零售额每个季度都在增长, 虽然不一致，而且速度缓慢. Within the sector, spending growth has differed significantly by category. 例如, 近几个月来，汽车销售增长强劲, but several big chains 和 other merchants are forecasting a tough 2015 holiday season.
一个新的，强大的 数据资产—the 澳博官方网站app 研究所 “本地消费商业概况”—allows us to shed light on these ambiguous indicators. 有了这个新的数据集，我们可以分析的重要特征 交易 消费者和企业之间的销售点和 社区、城市和大都市地区 水平. 在这个初始报告中，我们使用这些数据来探索标记的4.5 percentage-point slowdown in the growth of local 消费者 commerce between Q2 2014 和 Q2 2015 across 15个都市圈 在全国范围内. 具体来说，我们确定了不同的贡献 消费者 和 业务部门 对于这种减速.
找到一个: 中高收入消费者, 65岁及以上的消费者, 增长放缓的主要原因是什么, while low-income 消费者s 和 those under 35 maintained relatively stable spending growth.
We attribute the slowdown in spending growth to higher—income 和 older 消费者s, 哪个国家的支出从温和的增长水平大幅下降. 这与年轻消费者形成了鲜明对比, 谁的支出持续健康增长, 低收入消费者, 谁的支出放缓但仍在增长.
发现二: 支出 at large businesses shrunk more than spending at small- 和 medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), though SMEs accounted for almost as much of the slowdown in local 消费者 commercial spending as large businesses.
大型企业的支出增长大幅下滑, from an increase of nearly 7 percent from Q2 2013 to Q2 2014 to a decline of almost 1 percent from Q2 2014 to Q2 2015. 支出 growth at small- 和 medium-sized enterprises also slowed, though to a lesser extent. However, SMEs account for nearly 70 percent of local 消费者 commerce sales. 结果是, SMEs contributed nearly as much to the slowdown in growth of local 消费者 commerce as large businesses.
发现三: The growth of spending by 消费者s at businesses in their own metropolitan areas slowed the most, 尤其是在他们自己社区的企业里.
We attribute the slowdown in spending growth to considerably fewer purchases by residents from businesses in their neighborhood—spending plummeted from a 9 percent growth rate to zero. Purchases by residents from businesses within the same metropolitan area (but not in the same neighborhood) also fell, 但没有那么陡峭. 与此形成鲜明对比的是, 外地消费者的支出上升, although they represent a much smaller share of total metropolitan area sales.
发现四: 支出 growth at businesses that sell fuel 和 other nondurable goods slowed dramatically, 这不仅仅是因为价格下跌.
We attribute the slowdown in spending growth to businesses that sell fuel 和 other nondurable goods. 而燃料只占总支出的一小部分, the sharp decline in gas prices contributed significantly to the overall slowdown in local 消费者 commerce. 几乎同样重要的是其他非耐用品支出的放缓, 特别是服装, 食物, 医疗商品, 还有娱乐用品. 在这些非耐用品中, 价格下跌只是导致服装支出放缓的一个原因, 在某种程度上. 餐厅 和 other services continued to see moderate, but leveling, growth.
发现五: Strong 和 diverse growth across most metropolitan areas from Q2 2013 to Q2 2014 has slowed to tepid growth across the board from Q2 2014 to Q2 2015.
Our analyses show that changes in spending by higher-income older 消费者s played a major role in the slowdown of spending growth, 中小企业和大型企业的支出也是如此, 非耐用品支出，包括但不限于燃料, 消费者在离家最近的商店消费. 随着时间的推移, 本地消费商业概况 will provide monthly data on commercial vibrancy at the national 和 city level 和 will be released on a quarterly basis. We hope our ongoing data series will serve as a rich platform to help answer important questions about the 消费者 sector, 主导部门:经济的主导部门.
