数据可视化外汇市场因意外消息而波动
对于每个事件, 查看事件的时间轴, 随着时间的推移，汇率是如何受到影响的, 所有投资者的总净流量, 以及投资者部门的累计净流量.
瑞士国家银行
汇率重新定价
开始, we show how the 欧元/CHF exchange rate repriced on the event day as well as individual events that occurred over the course of the day. 2015年1月15日，上午9:30.m., 瑞士央行出人意料地发布新闻稿，完全放弃了这个下限, 而不是逐渐地或在预定的政策会议上. 这一消息震惊了市场——欧元兑瑞郎从1美元兑1美元.201 to 0.895 (25.5%)在接下来的24分钟内回撤了最初走势的一半，最终收于1.053 (12.在伦敦交易日结束时，美国股市下跌了3%. 这是欧元兑瑞郎近20年来最大的单日波动, 比平均水平高出近27个标准差.
机构投资者的总净流量(风险转移)
下一个, we show the evolution of the exchange rate alongside aggregated (over three-minute intervals) net flows for all institutional investors during the 24-hour event period. 从这个, we can see that while the amount of risk transferred during the period of sharp exchange rate repricing was large, it was not completely unprecedented relative to risk transferred during the more stable period that followed. 因此，仅凭净流动不能解释汇率的急剧变化. The direction of overall net flows during the repricing period was consistent with the prevailing changes in the FX rate—in the three minutes following the SNB press release, 我们看到近10亿美元瑞郎兑其他货币的买盘. 在这三分钟的时间里，大量购买瑞郎的行为与2.瑞郎兑美元升值5%. 欧元. The surprise nature of the SNB announcement did not allow for pre-event position adjustments and could account for the buying of CHF immediately after the news broke.
活动前期间按投资者类别划分的累计净流量
放大到事件发生前(瑞士央行宣布之前的几个小时), we now show cumulative net flows (relative to the start of the period) for each of the six investor sectors alongside the exchange rate. 对于瑞士央行的事件，我们看到任何投资者部门都没有什么活动. 这可能归因于一天中的时间(格林尼治时间), 在此期间欧元/瑞士法郎汇率下限的存在, 以及(或者)这一声明的意外性质.
重新定价期间按投资者类别划分的累计净流量
接下来，我们显示了重新定价期间投资者部门的累计净流量, 在瑞士央行宣布之后，欧元/瑞郎急剧下跌的时间间隔是多少. 在这里, we see that the net flows during the 24-minute repricing period following the surprise announcement from the SNB indicate that net risk transferred was largely one way—all investor sectors were either buying CHF or absent. 净流量与汇率变动一致——欧元/瑞郎从1下降.201 to 0.同期增加了895人. 在大量购买瑞士法郎后, 银行进行了一些小的销售, 但在整个重新定价期间，净额是瑞郎的买家. 在重新定价期间，不太活跃的投资者基本上缺席. 因为当瑞郎升值时，所有活跃的投资者都在净买入瑞郎, 在这个关键阶段，做市商是唯一卖出瑞郎的市场参与者, 虽然我们不直接衡量这种联系, 这可能在瑞士央行重新定价期间放大了欧元/瑞郎的波动..
稳定期间各投资者部门的累计净流量
最后，我们显示了稳定时期投资者部门的累计净流量. 瑞士央行的活动, cumulative net flows during the stabilization period were mixed across investor sectors—there were both buyers and sellers of CHF and all investor sectors participated. 这与瑞士央行的重新定价期形成鲜明对比, 在此期间，只有瑞郎买家，资金净流入主要是银行和对冲基金.
重要事件
第一个, we show how the GBP/USD exchange rate repriced on the two event days as well as the individual headlines that occurred as the event unfolded. 投票在晚上9点结束.m. 格林尼治时间，英镑兑美元在1附近.488. As referendum results came in and it became evident that “Leave” would win, GBP depreciated sharply. 大约一小时前，英国独立电视台(格林尼治标准时间3:37)和英国广播公司(格林尼治标准时间3:41)都呼吁公投支持脱欧, 英镑兑美元达到1.324，损失11.0%. 出乎意料的“脱欧”结果导致英镑兑美元出现近20年来最大单日波动, 比平均值高14个标准差.
机构投资者的总净流量(风险转移)
下一个, we show the evolution of the exchange rate alongside aggregated (over 15-minute intervals) net flows for all institutional investors during the 48-hour event period. While the amount of risk transferred during the period of sharp exchange rate repricing was large, it was not completely unprecedented relative to risk transferred during the more stable period that followed. 因此，仅凭净流动不能解释汇率的急剧变化. 在重新定价期间的净流量最初是相对混合的, 我们看到英镑出现抛售, 但一旦英镑兑美元跌至1以下.净流入逆转，转而买入英镑.
活动前期间按投资者类别划分的累计净流量
放大到事件发生前的时间段, we now show cumulative net flows (relative to the start of the period) for each investor sector alongside the exchange rate. 对于Brexit, risk transferred was mixed across the investor sectors with some sectors buying and other sectors selling GBP during the day of the referendum (6月23日, 2016年)，当时民意调查正在结束，结果刚刚开始公布.
重新定价期间按投资者类别划分的累计净流量
接下来，我们显示了重新定价期间投资者部门的累计净流量. Net flows during the Brexit repricing period also showed both buying and selling of GBP across the different investor sectors. Net flows from asset managers and banks were balanced with both buying and selling throughout the repricing period. Hedge funds sold GBP during the first half of the repricing period but turned to buying in the second half even as the currency continued to depreciate. 像这样, the active investor sectors were trading both with and against the prevailing exchange rate trend over the course of the Brexit repricing period and likely had a mixed impact on the exchange rate. 值得注意的是, the Brexit repricing period was the only event of the three we study where a less-active investor sector transferred risk—the pension/insurance sector purchased a material amount of GBP at the end of the repricing period after it had depreciated.
稳定期间各投资者部门的累计净流量
最后，我们显示了稳定时期投资者部门的累计净流量. 对于Brexit, 稳定期间的累计净流量也好坏参半, 一些行业买入英镑，一些行业卖出英镑, 所有投资者部门都在转移一些风险.
重要事件
第一个, we show how the USD/MXN exchange rate repriced on the two event days as well as the individual headlines that occurred as the event unfolded. 当第一次投票在格林尼治时间午夜结束时(晚上7点).m. 美东时间)，美元兑比索在18附近.308. 随着初步结果出炉，特朗普获胜的几率增加，MXN开始贬值. 美元兑比索达到了20的峰值.741 (13.3%)大约5点.m. GMT (midnight EST) after several swing states were either called for Trump or seemed well on their way to being called for Trump, 最终稳定在19岁左右.828 (8.3%). 特朗普的意外获胜导致美元兑墨西哥元出现了20年来最大的单日波动, 比平均水平高出近12个标准差.
机构投资者的总净流量(风险转移)
下一个, we show the evolution of the exchange rate alongside aggregated (over 15-minute intervals) net flows for all institutional investors during the 48-hour event period. We can see that while the amount of risk transferred during the period of sharp exchange rate repricing was large, it was not completely unprecedented relative to risk transferred during the more stable period that followed. 此外, 在重新定价期间的净流量显示购买MXN，因为MXN贬值了, suggesting that net flows were not the only determinant of the changes in exchange rates—the 美国大选 results led to changes in the perception of the fundamental value of MXN that were realized during the repricing periods as market makers interpreted the news directly; net flows were not required to re-price MXN.
活动前期间按投资者类别划分的累计净流量
放大到事件发生前的时间段, we now show cumulative net flows (relative to the start of the period) for each investor sector alongside the exchange rate. 对于美国大选, risk transferred was mixed across the investor sectors with some sectors buying and other sectors selling MXN during the day of the election (11月8日, 2016年)，当时民意调查即将结束，初步结果开始出炉.
重新定价期间按投资者类别划分的累计净流量
接下来，我们显示了重新定价期间投资者部门的累计净流量. 在美国大选期间重新定价, 活跃投资者部门的净流动是定向的，而不是平衡的. In this case these investors were buying MXN as it depreciated and trading against the prevailing move in exchange rates. 在不太活跃的投资板块中，养老金/保险投资者也买入了MXN. 综上所述, these results suggest that institutional investors' net flows played a lesser role during the 美国大选 repricing period than for the other two events.
稳定期间各投资者部门的累计净流量
最后，我们显示了稳定时期投资者部门的累计净流量. 对于美国大选, 在稳定期间的累计净流量基本上是混合的, 一些板块买入，一些板块卖出墨西哥股票, 所有投资者部门都在转移一些风险.
瑞士法郎下限
1月15日th, 2015 • 格林尼治时间上午9:30, the 瑞士国家银行 (SNB) abandoned its floor on the 欧元/CHF exchange rate via a surprise press release. 这一消息震惊了市场——欧元兑瑞郎下跌12点.3%. 请点击此处查看机构投资者的反应.
Brexit
6月23日rd, 2016 • See how various types of institutional investors reacted after UK voters surprised the world by voting to “Leave” the European Union, 导致英镑兑美元隔夜下跌11%.
美国大选
11月8日th, 2016 • 大选前，预测人士普遍预计希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)会获胜. See how institutional investors behaved as early returns from swing states pointed to an unexpected Trump victory.